Sunday, April 5, 2009

The Walking Dead

Full credit to Arti, a commenter over at SM Distress Monitor, who came up with a great term, with regards to this post, for listings where the seller (individual or bank) is holding on for a "greater fool" to appear, and where it's only a matter of time before the other shoe drops.

Since I don't know Arti, and don't have his permission, I didn't use the specific term, but you can guess it from the post title, or just meander over to our friends at SMDM. These listings are really in no-mans land.

Along those lines, we proudly present ...

8616 Sherwood Dr. (90069)
$849,900
2br/2BA, 1,440 sq ft
Lot Size: 3,127 sq ft

BANK OWNED. REO. JUST REDUCED. Beautiful contemporary home features two Bedroom suites, one with private balcony. Gourmet kitchen is gorgeous and designer sharp with top of the line appliances and beautiful high end cabinets. Gleaming wood floors and recently painted. Ready to move into. Terrific location close to the best restaurants and cafes. SUBMIT ALL OFFERS REO VERY MOTIVATED

Sold: 10/08 - $782k (bank buy-back?)

Listed: 11/08 - $1,049,900

Reduced: 12/08 - $979,900k

Reduced: 1/09 - $949,900

Reduced: 2/09 - $909,900

Relisted: 2/09 - $909,900

Reduced: 3/09 - $874,900

Reduced: 3/09 - $849,900

Wow. Just wow. So much going on here, where to start.

First off, obviously, this is a bank-owned property. It's difficult to tell, but it looks like the previous owners bought a tear-down and built this place. Maybe they ran out of money, and we're assuming the $782k number is what was owed the bank.

If that's the case, dear Mr. Banker, why oh why the pricing games? An initial listing over $1mm? OK, a little greedy if you're only owed $782k, but in November the world was in the early stages of falling apart, so we'll play along. And, if they had been aggressive about cutting the price at that point, say to the low $900s, maybe they would have found a "greater fool". But now, this thing's in free-fall, and they are so behind the curve, it's laughable.

Seeing the "gas-station" pricing (why not just round to the nearest thousand?) makes us think that there's a 22 year old at the bank who's been given a list of REO properties and specific marching orders on when and by how much to reduce the prices. At the beginning, the reductions were coming every month like clockwork.

And, of course, no blog-worthy listing would be complete without the mandatory "re-list" - at the same price as when it was taken off ...

This is a new construction house, which has some appeal, although by the looks of the pictures, the interior's been done to a certain taste (not "neutral") which probably limits the buying audience. A typically tiny lot in a decent area in the 90069. Add it all up, and we still have a ways to go on this one. The stubborness of the bank here is clearly fascinating. Even if they were owed more than the $782k we're assuming, the time to cut and run on this may have already passed.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

You really arent adding much to the conversation.

Full Disclosure said...

Then let me add some details: I remember seeing this property listed before its foreclosure in late 2007/early 2008--the price then was north of $1,200K! It was fancy schmancy on the inside but on a puny spit of land on a rather busy street. Then it was reduced to $1,159K in Feb, 2008. And then down, down, down, until now.

With the bubble bursting already in 2007 but the local chorus belting out that it would NEVER EVER happen to WEHO, one wonders -- shouldn't real estate agents be giving realistic advice to sellers to price their properties for current market conditions. I would want one like that. Wouldn't you?

I think this home would have sold for $900K in early 2008, if only greed and denial had not been so rampant. Unfortunately, for many it still is.

WeHo Homes said...

one wonders -- shouldn't real estate agents be giving realistic advice to sellers to price their properties for current market conditions.

Good question. I think one of the problems here is that some of these were the same agents/brokers that were advising their clients to "buy at any price" 2-3 years ago.

I'm sort of joking with the "at any price", but I remember going to an open house a few years back and overhearing a conversation where an agent/broker was advising her prospective buyer client to not worry about her current income, she could borrow against her 401(k) to fund the purchase.

Anonymous said...

"I think one of the problems here is that some of these were the same agents/brokers that were advising their clients to "buy at any price" 2-3 years ago."

Yep. And the following illustrates the problem with many agents/sellers vs. market reality:

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his livelihood depends on not understanding it."
Upton Sinclair

tmp00 said...

I passed this place a lot when it was under construction and frankly thought the owners were insane. They clearly sank a fortune into it and it's on a lot the size of a postage stamp.

The canvas awning as carport was the most ridiculous bit for me.

Bubblewatcher said...

Just out of curiosity, what would be a fair price for this, do you think? I did a redfin search on sales of SFRs in WeHo in the past 3 months, and came up with a widely varied list of only about 20 houses, with a median price per square foot of about $881. But that does seem high for this.

WeHo Homes said...

Just out of curiosity, what would be a fair price for this, do you think?

I did some off-line analysis of SFR prices last fall based on extrapolating out data from 2000 (I assume that was an Ok "base" year to grow pricing from).

Using that methodology, it would put the per sq ft price at ... drumroll please ... somewhere in the high $400/ft range, meaning somewhere just under $700k for this place.

Doing the rent-vs.-own analysis probably gets you close to the same place. Despite its size (and size relative to the property), it is new construction (albeit for specific tastes) and in a good neighborhood. I'd guess it could rent for $3500-$4000/month. That payment at current mortgage rates gets you to somewhere in the $650-700k range.

So, down another 20-25% from here? Certainly conceivable.