Showing posts with label Condo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Condo. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Green With Envy - Update 2 (The "Out of the Shadows" Edition)

We profiled the architecturally interesting (funky/cool/ugly, depending on your taste) 825 N. Kings Rd complex first in March when unit #4 went on the market, and updated the sale in July, which saw a relatively significant reduction from list.

We also contemplated whether, given the # of units shown sold in the building, there was additional "shadow inventory" here.

It appears we might have been on to something, as two additional units have come on to the market in the past few weeks. Neither have prior sales history, which would seem to suggest they were developers' units. In addition, the description for one indicates that it is "also for lease".

We disclose a lot of public info here, but I don't like putting individuals names, or even an insinuation of who they are, on the blog - just seems to go too far. Suffice it to say that it appears the original development group and/or "backers" still owns both of these.

Keep in mind that #4 was a 2BR/1.75BA, 1322 sq ft unit that ended up selling for $682,500 in July (prior sale 8/07 for $797k).

Both of these units look to be larger, more upgraded, and better-positioned in the building than #4. Will be interesting to see if they command a 50-100% premium.

825 N. Kings Rd #7
$959,000
2BR / 2 BA
(sq ft not listed)
Beautiful split-level dramatic unit in award-winning masterpiece by architect Lorcan O'Herlihy. Soaring ceilings & Amendium hardwood floors accentuate the sleek minimalist design. Sophisticated kitchen with Boffii cabinets, Miele appliances & large walk-in pantry opens to spacious living & dining area. Ceilings & walls converging at unique angles, the eco-conscious design is light & airy. Upstairs are 2nd bedroom & large master with private patio & well-appointed baths. Also for lease at $5,850.

825 N. Kings Rd #14
$1,249,000
2BR / 2.5 BA
1,490 sq ft
Unbelievable opportunity to own the BEST unit for sale in West Hollywood, in the award winning Habitat 825 by acclaimed architect, Lorcan O'Herlihy. Highly upgraded, this TOP floor split level floor plan (1 common wall) features walls of glass w/3 exposures, custom walnut flooring, a customized dual sided fireplace in liv rm that opens out to the enormous private patio. Boffi kitch w/Miele appliances, upgraded closets, upgraded master bath, custom window treatments & built-in sound. A must see!

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Whither the "Industry Crowd"?

An Anon commented on one of the recent posts:

"A major economic driver for West Hollywood and its environs is the entertainment industry. If the recent LA Times article on the subject is to be believed, the local entertainment industry is under serious pressure from distant (cheaper) competition. Totally aside from the inevitable deflation of the housing bubble there simply will not be the economic support for 1.5 million dollar apartments, nice size or not."

The story is here, for those that didn't see it.

A couple of things:

1) The story focuses on small "support industry" players, not the upper-echelon executives

2) The media has its tried-and-true "death knells" for various industries, and I'm sure the movie/TV production business' death has been called numerous times in the past.

That said, there's no doubt the economic conditions are weighing on all sectors (unless maybe you work at Goldman Sachs).

Again, LA is a big city. I'm not naive enough to think that there aren't people with a LOT of money among the masses.

The question of the day - have the high-paying, high-spending days in "the industry", whose participants I think a condo like this one (large "bachelor pad" style) is targeting, dried up? Peak Manhattan pricing for a condo in LA (OK, so it gets a premium because you can walk to the Roxy and the new Boa)?


9255 Doheny Rd #2203 (90069)
$1,495,000 ($1,132/ft)
1BR / 1.5BA
1,321 sq ft

Rare offering in the highly coveted Sierra Towers, one of LA's best full-service bldgs. Ideal 22nd-floor location, w/large deck to take in the stunning views. Updated chef's kitchen, dining area, and spacious LR, all adorned w/beautiful hardwood flrs. Oversized master suite w/abundantly spacious closet helps this stunning unit shine. Hand the keys to the valet & stroll over to the Sunset Strip. Top of the line building includes pool, newly updated gym, concierge & 24-hour security & valet.

Sold: 4/02 - $512,500

Sold: 9/03 - $700,000

Listed: 5/8/09 - $1,850,000

Reduced: 5/21/09

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

"Mad as Hell" - UPDATE

We featured the short sale of the 2BR/2BA, 889 sq ft unit #102 at 960 Larrabee Street a few posts ago where we highlighted the somewhat bitter description which included the phrase "bank to discount only a small amount" from the $460,000 owed on the property.

At the time, the price had been reduced to $429,000.

Now the unit is back with a fresh price reduction to $399,000.

A couple of things - although in general, there's nothing really of interest -

1) Be careful what you wish for ... in other words $400-and-something-thousand for a small 2BR 1st floor condo is not, and never should have been, reality. The bank is down about 15% from what's owed in what appears to be a condo-as-ATM situation

2) Are we approaching rental levels here? Despite my cynicism, this is in a decent part of WeHo and seems to be reasonably upgraded. Pre-tax monthly with some realistic assumptions is about $2500. I think similar units probably rent around $2000, so maybe in the low to mid $300s this starts to make sense? (Cue the crowd who hates the idea of owning ANY condo ...)

Thursday, June 11, 2009

We're Mad As Hell And ... Oh, Never Mind ...

960 Larrabee St. #102 (90069)
$429,000
2BR / 2BA
889 sq ft ($483/ft)

Front corner 2 bedroom & 2 baths. Newer kitchen, LAUNDRY is allowed in the unit, hook ups are in place.Pergo floors,updated baths. there is a sm. balcony. Prime Close to ALL W. Hollywood location. Western exposure. this is a SHORT short sale, meaning seller owes $460,000. bank to discount only a small amount. both Mtg's are with the same bank so it should be a quick process. 24 hr notice to show, please. REDUCED 6/2.

Sold: A bunch of times prior to 1994 reflecting the late 80s/early 90s bubble with applicable lower and lower successive sale prices.

Sold: 7/01 - $180,000

Sold: 9/03 - $325,000

Sold: 2/05 - $420,000

Listed: 5/27/09 - $475,000

Reduced: 6/3/09 - $449,000

Reduced: 6/9/09 - $429,000

Yes, I am just posting this because I needed a good laugh. Nothing particularly remarkable about this small 2BR. It's in a decent location and appears to have been updated, but is on the first floor and has my personal favorite, laminate wood flooring.

I just like the audacity of the bank in that they're only going to "discount a small amount" from the loan balance, which appears to have been a home-as-ATM situation, or as I like to call it, the "everyone in LA drives a Range Rover, why shouldn't I?" syndrome.

Well, they've discounted almost 10% from the $460,000 and this will need to go lower to clear, since we've seen at least 2004 rollbacks in the condo market.

Sunday, May 24, 2009

Today's Marketing Award

1435 N. Fairfax #18 (90046)
$399,000
1BR / 1BA
No sq ft listed

On Market: 288 Days

Fabulous DONE top floor gem off the Sunset Strip. Sunny, rear, quiet corner unit w/ outside entry. Totally redone w/ designer details. Bamboo floors. Newer kitchen w/ Caesar stone countertops & stainless steel appliances. Sleek bath w/ glass tile & countertop. Frosted glass doors, recessed lighting. Built-ins in the bedroom w/ lovely views of the hills. Sparkling pool & convenient to shops, cafes, & entertainment! Very clean & well maintained bldg w/ low HOD's. Listed 2007 for $489 -Such a deal!

Sold: 11/97 - $45,000

Sold: 2/98 - $51,500

Sold: 3/00 - $101,000 (Are we paying attention? This was less than 10 years ago. Plug your 5% appreciation onto this number ...)

Sold: 7/05 - $370,000 (a triple in 5 years, sounds about right ...)

Listed: 8/08 - $399,000 (no price change in 8 months ...)


Now, I don't get the sense that small 1BRs are necessarily appealing to the audience, but this listing caught my eye - and there are a number out there with a similar approach.

SERIOUSLY, now ... there has been a lot of comment discussion over at SMDM recently about Realtors (remember to emphasize the "real"!), most of it not very nice. I personally believe that there is a small, core group of agents who actually know the market, are ethical, and try to base their clients (whether buyers or sellers) in reality, depending on the market. Then there's the other 90% who passed their multiple choice exam during the bubble years, worked a few hours a week making some quick bucks, all the while answering "I'm not sure" to sellers' questions about a property, 'cause hey, who cared? You'd be getting multiple offers anyway - time to buy the Porsche.

The deflation of the bubble still has a long way to go, and when all is said and done, there will have been a natural weeding out of most of those types of agents (if not the bulk of the "agent" business in general). In the meantime, I guess we're going to have to live with the blind leading the blind in terms of listing techniques/tactics.

For the love of multiple offers ... do we really think that comparing the current listing price to a "2007 listing" has any relevance? (Although, in another "realtor favorite", there's a typo here ... if the property was actually listed for $489.00, even I couldn't have resisted ...)

I know your living is dependent on keeping up the illusion that "everything is OK", but your property has languished on the market for over 9 months. Do your clients a favor and tell them (and yourself) to GET REAL.

Saturday, May 23, 2009

2003 Rollback = Approaching Reality??

818 N. Doheny Dr. #303 (90069)
$600,000
2BR / 2BA
1,545 sq ft ($388/ft)
HOD: $807/mo (full service bldg)
On Market: 311 Days

APPROVED!! LET'S OPEN ESCROW TODAY! Best deal in the building! Fantastic opportunity to live at Doheny Plaza, a 1st class full service condominium building across the street from Beverly Hills! Unit is fully remodeled and move in condition! 2bd/2 full baths with travertine and granite mixed. Custom counter-tops & shower. Huge master bedroom with large walk in closet. Recessed lighting, custom bar. Below market value. Seller motivated!!

Sold: 7/03 - $405,000

Sold: 2/04 - $525,000 (+30% in 7 months)

Listed: 7/08 - $750,000

Reduced: (and in one case, increased) a bunch of times until the last reduction to $600,000 in March of this year.

I won't dwell on some of our "favorite" listing tactics (really, this is "below market value"? Whose market?). Although this doesn't show as a short sale, the "Approved" in the listing indicates it might be, unless the real estate broker/clerk is happy that their client "approved" this "below market" price ...

Anyway ... I'm assuming that the "fully remodeled" happened after the 2004 purchase. If that's the case, can we all please see the extent of the bubble - this unit resold for a 30% increase in a 7 month period between 2003 and 2004. If the remodeling happened during that time, this seller was even more delusional with their original listing price.

I'm officially calling this a 2003 rollback because 1) it's languished on the market another 60+ days since the last price decrease, suggesting it needs to drop further, and 2) assuming the seller put $50k or so into the place, you're looking at a true "net" of probably close to $500k (or lower) when all is said and done.

So, the question is ... at $500k, with the high HOD, you're looking at $3000/mo or so after tax cost. This is, of course, in a low rate environment. Would this rent for $3000? Our "affordability" test would indicate that someone making $150-175k or so a year should be able to afford this at $500k - does that feel right for this type of property?

Friday, May 15, 2009

Friday Night Fights Vol. 7 - Death to the Bloated

The title was too long, otherwise I would have called this "I see your bloated, 'death-by-a-thousand-papercuts' listing and raise you a lower-priced (and seemingly - GASP! - reasonably-priced) unit ..."

Blogger's note ... after re-reading my post, my seeming (and out-of-character) "cheerleading" on #2 makes it seem like I have some axe to grind there. Not the case here, or with any of my postings.


CHALLENGER #1
(a/k/a "Bloaty Von Bloat")
838 N. Doheny Dr. #707 (90069)
$529,900
2BR / 1.5BA
1,105 sq ft ($480/ft)
HOA: $833/mo
Full-service building

On Market: 275 Days

Ready? Ok, here we go ...

Sold: 2/04 - $441,000

Listed: 8/13/08 - $779,000
Reduced: 9/19/08 - $719,000
Reduced: 9/24/08 - $701,100
Increased: 9/25/08 - $719,000
Reduced: 10/8/08 - $701,100
Reduced: 11/6/08 - $669,000
Reduced: 12/18/08 - $649,000
Reduced: 1/27/09 - $587,500
Reduced: 3/3/09 - $549,900
Reduced: 4/4/09 - $529,900

I mean, HONESTLY? The process and numbers speak for themselves. We're going to give the sellers the benefit of the doubt as it looks like they re-did the unit somewhat since the 2004 purchase, but since we all know that 2004 rollbacks are starting to happen, the original price is delusional. And the price INCREASE in September last year. Tricky! Bottom line, they cut too slowly and the market would have left them to their own little devices, until ...

CHALLENGER #2
(a/k/a "Reality IS an Option")
838 N. Doheny Dr #505
$459,900
2BR / 1.5BA
1,218 sq ft. ($378/ft)
HOA: $1,025/mo

On Market: 7 Days

Sold: 9/78 (no price listed)

So, here it looks like we have a long-time owner (who appears to have done some upgrades over time) undercutting the current listing on a similarly-sized listing. I can't speak for either unit, but that aren't that far apart in terms of floor, and both appear to have been upgraded somewhat and have similar amenities.

For unit #505, you're looking at approx $3500 pre-tax on a monthly basis. Not for everyone, but for a unit this size in a full-service building, this seems to be getting close to a reasonable rent level. Will be interesting to see if the sellers of Unit #505 are willing to cut quickly if they don't get initial interest, and how #707 will respond.

Friday, May 8, 2009

Fri. Night Fights Vol. 6 - "Fountain(s) of Pain"


8455 Fountain Ave (90069)
Fountain & La Cienega

Condominium w/94 units

THE CHALLENGERS:
6 Units on the market

Lots of data points here. These are larger units; there are four 2+2 units for sale, ranging from 1350 sq ft to 1800 sq ft, and two 3+3s at 1900 and 2200 sq ft.

Don't have time to post on all of the units, but let's look at two that are comparable from a size perspective:


Unit #203
$600,000
2+2, 1351 sq ft ($444/sq ft)
HOA: $450/mo
On Market: 107 days
"Needs TLC"

Sold: 6/76 (yep) - $57,000

Listed: 1/09 - $525,000

Changed: 2/09 - $600,000 (did they get indications this was priced too low?)

Unit #527
$589,000
2+2, 1439 sq ft ($409/ft)
On Market: 15 days
Appears to have some upgrades (kitchen)

Sold: 11/95 - $109,000

Here we have one of these situations that doesn't seem to make sense/may involve a delusional seller. Unit #203 appears to have a ton of pricing flexibility given original purchase price and what appears to be little to no upgrading. However, after an initial price INCREASE (?), it's still on the market with no price change for a few months.

Now here comes #527, which appears to be comparable in terms of size, has pricing flexibility (although not as much given original purchase price and what appears to be some upgrading), and undercuts #203.

It would appear that #203 needs to wake up to the current market - both generally and right on their doorstep.


Sunday, April 19, 2009

"Rollback" gone mainstream

999 N. Doheny Dr. #1112
$599,000
1BR/1BA, 974 sq ft ($615/ft)
HOA: $740/mo

Description: This is a 2005 roll back price for a short time only. This is the largest one bedroom in the building with a 37 ft,.+ balcony to entertain and enjoy breathtaking panoramic views over Beverly Hills to the Ocean; the Getty Museum and beyond! Lots of closet space. Open area could be den, or formal dining room? New carpet. EZ to show. Rare offering of an upper floor. unit. Last unit of this size sold a short time ago for over $750K. and was gutted!

Sold: 9/89 - $220k

Sold: 10/97 - $182k (8 years, -17%)

Listed: 1/09 - $699k

Reduced: 2/09 - $679k

Reduced: 3/09 - $649k

Reduced: 4/09 - $599k

This is the first time I've seen the term "rollback" used by those in the RE biz - they must be catching on to the blogosphere ...

Obviously, "rollback" in this case must reference pricing of other units sold in 2005, since as we see from this unit's history, the last sale was in 1997, at a price which represented a nominal 17% decrease from its prior sale in 1989. Yes, Virginia, this is what happens when bubbles deflate/pop.

Another classic listing tactic - comparing this unit to one that sold "a short time ago" ... wonder if they mean unit #612, a same-sized unit which sold back in March of last year for $735k (OK, not "over $750k", but nice try). As we know, the world has changed since early last year, which was the very beginning of the RE market decline.

And, a recent sale of unit #303, a 1,010 sq ft 2BR/2BA in the same building (granted, not a high floor) took place last month for $425k, or $420/ft.

Rough monthly cost at this price (pre-tax)? $4100.

Friday, April 10, 2009

Green With Envy - UPDATE

We first profiled 825 N. Kings Rd in our "Green With Envy" post, where we speculated about the pricing of this relatively new construction, as well as the fact that it looked like there might be shadow inventory in the building.

Now, a couple updates:

After the first post, some commenters mentioned having seen the building and being impressed. Indeed, your friendly blogger missed this NY Times article from Jan 2008 praising the concept and architecture. Some very glowing reviews of the building, and this excerpt is telling - although we were talking about different times even in early 2008:

Mr. O’Herlihy and Mr. Loring were clearly right in gauging the pent-up demand: Most of the condos, which range from 1,270 to 1,900 square feet and average $1.1 million, sold during the two years of construction, largely on the basis of architect’s renderings posted online and on visits to the unfinished units. The penthouses have sold for $900 to $1,00 a square foot, according to Mr. Loring, among the highest prices ever paid for condominiums in West Hollywood.

“The prices probably wouldn’t comp out,” said Grant Leavitt, 27, a real estate developer and another member of the new generation who has bought an apartment at Habitat 825, for just under a million dollars: a bridge-like space, supported by oddly canted poles, that links two parts of the cement-board wing. “But that’s O.K.,” he continued. “There’s really nothing like this out there.”

So, have many of these types of buyers gone away given the changed economic climate? The residents profiled seemed to fit the celebrity/well-to-do young & hip clients that would fit this building. Any distress in that demographic?

And our second update, from the MLS recently ... Unit #11 was put up for sale at $995,000. This was one of the units that we suspected might be in the "shadow inventory", but after some digging and putting the pieces together, it looks like this unit last sold for $925,000 in pre-construction. Again, much different market now, but an increase over the price paid?

Will be interesting to see if unique buildings like this can hold onto their value as we see others, particularly new construction, continuing to track downward.

Friday Night Fights - Vol. 2 (High-end Condo edition)

Continuing our new Friday tradition of posting two WeHo properties that are very similar and "duking it out" for buyer attention in the marketplace, we present the following match up:

THE CHAMPION
616 Huntley Dr. #3 (90069)
$1,849,000
3BR/4BA
2,549 sq ft ($725/ft)
On Market: 43 days

Hip location ! Spectacular & unique European-style penthouse in exlusive 3-unit Bldg. Private elevator access to entry foyer. Great room w/ 2-sty ceiling.. Kitch w/ top of the line appliances. Dinning rm with extensive hillside vus. Balconies on both levels w/ awnings Master w/ walk-in closet/sitt area/FP/ marble bath. Upper level area has access to a massive resort -style roof top deck w/ full kitchen, BBQ area & panaromic vus. Dramatic and exelarating!! Walking distance to shops & restaurant

Sold: 7/04 - $1,165,000

There are prior sale records (1989 and 1996), but given the price levels and the newish construction look, I'm assuming those were for whatever structure was on the property before being demo'ed. The listing doesn't indicate that this unit has been updated since the prior purchase, so does this seller really think he/she is going to be $700k above 2004 pricing when we've already seen early 2005/late 2004 rollbacks in many areas? Am I missing something here?

THE CHALLENGER
8703 W. Knoll Dr. #401
$1,695,000
3BR/3BA
2,943 sq ft. ($576/ft)
New Construction

One of a kind. Panoramic city view is offered in this new architectural 3 bedroom + Den townhome with direct key controlled access from elevator. The light & bright living/dining/kitchen area opens to private view sundeck. Unit features pewter stained brushed oak floors, Meile kitchen appliances & stone kitchen. Master suite has oversized custom walk-in closet, stone shower, duravit bathing tub and double sinks. State of the art finishes! Open Sat & Sun 2-5pm. March 28/29. Tuesday 24th 11-2pm.

There has been some recent discussion over at SMDM regarding the benefits/drawbacks of buying a house vs. a townhome/condo. Your friendly blogger tends to be more of a condo/townhome person, given lifestyle, no kids/worry about school district, etc.

Having said that, the "house" people are generally right in that all you're getting with a condo/townhouse is technically four walls and air (ok, generalizing a bit).

These two properties clearly have the size of a stand-alone house, and appear to be finished very nicely. The question is, at these price points, to whom, exactly, are they appealing? The just-divorced studio exec looking for a new bachelor pad? The DINKs lawyer crowd who want to stay within walking distance of Urth and Le Pain Quotidien?

Remember our two themes: 1) who "should" be able to afford properties, and 2) what's the comparable rent?

At these prices, you're talking at least $350-400k down and then being left with a monthly nut of approx $10-12k, depending on assumptions for HOA, rates etc. That translates into an approx $500k annual income to support.

Would these rent for anywhere near $10-12k/mo? I know someone who recently rented a Hollywood Hills house, at least as big as these, with yard, pool, roofdeck, etc for somewhere in the $6-7k range. So does being "walking distance to shops and restaurants" get you another $3-5k/mo?

Side Note: If any readers have suggestions for types of properties they'd like to see on the "Friday Night Fights" (price range, SFR vs. condo, specific location), please comment.

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Loft-y Expectations

Thanks to the Anon who alerted us to the near-completion of the new lofts at 901 Hancock Ave (90069).

It looks like these are just being finished (perfect timing) and have not yet shown up on the MLS or other listing sites. I drove by these a few weeks ago and there was still significant scaffolding outside.

I was able to cobble together a little info from realtor sites profiling the property, including:

Asking price: Starting in the $900,000s
Number of units: 31 one- and two-bedroom condos

"The building’s one- and two-bedroom units range in size from 1,000 – 1,800 sq ft. Seven affordable rental units and three retail spaces are built into street level. Tender Greens of Culver City is slated to occupy one of the retail spaces.

The building is an appealing amalgam of metal, glass and steel, and has a snazzy rooftop pool. The luxurious units are outfitted with Miele and Jenn-Air appliances and other high-end touches including “expansive, anodized aluminum windows with clear, dual-glazed, low-e glass” and “European walnut cabinetry with concealed, self-closing hinges, adjustable shelf supports and drawer slides” (sure to be a major attraction!)

Throw in central AC and a couple of walk-in closets, and you’ve got contemporary, pampered living at its best." (???)


We have profiled several new developments recently, all of which are showing signs of distress. If I'm reading the numbers right, a 1,000 sq ft unit is going to be listed for $900k. That's right, kids, $900/sq ft. Manhattan (and I don't mean Beach) type pricing. Ouch. It looks like a few of the units were initially going to be rentals - wonder if more will end up in the rental pool.

The location, in general, is certainly "in the mix", but despite the Hancock Ave address, these are right on Santa Monica Blvd, and as our Anon tipster put it, "For the life of me, I can't figure out who would want to spend that kind of $$ to live over a car wash." Amen.

Friday, March 13, 2009

Norma Triangle Pt. 3 - C'mon in, the Water's Fine ...

8960 Cynthia St. #101
1BR, 1BA / 775 sq ft.

$459,000 ($592/ft)
On Market: 163 Days

Sold: 4/04 - $349,000
Listed: 10/08 - $499,000
Reduced: 11/08 - $489,000
Reduced: 1/09 - $479,000
Reduced: 4/09 - $459,000


8960 Cynthia St. #106
1BR, 1BA / 771 sq ft.

$459,000 ($595/ft)
New Listing

No sales data found





8960 Cynthia St. #116
2BR, 2BA / 1196 sq ft.

$620,000 ($518/ft)
New Listing

Sold: 7/05 - $605,000




This will be the last of a three-part series on the Norma Triangle neighborhood (for now).

There's an interesting situation going on in the building at 8960 Cynthia, and one that's repeating itself throughout the real estate market.

Notice the first unit (#101), which has been on the market nearly 6 months, with the seller taking our favorite "death by 1,000 papercuts" approach to pricing. The listing says the unit has been "re-done", so maybe the seller didn't have a lot of room from the purchase price, but these minor price cuts mean nothing in a rapidly-moving market.

Now, enter unit #106, a nearly identically-sized 1BR. I couldn't find any sales data for this unit, which leads me to believe that it was purchased a while ago. The listing says the "bathroom and kitchen have been updated". A rational seller would probably look at unit #101, which has been sitting on the market, and price slightly (if not more than slightly) under it. Instead, they try to get cute and list it for THE SAME PRICE. Now, potential buyers have two units competing at the exact same price, instead of one priced lower than the other. And yes, I think even a minor difference ($10-15k) in this market actually makes a big psychological difference. If this is a long-time owner with pricing room, I'd look for a quick, significant cut here in the next 30 days. The issue is that unit #101, languishing on the market, may need to cut sooner than that, leading to a potential price war.

Unit #116 is not truly "comparable", since it's a 2BR unit, but interesting that it just came on to the market as well, also priced over $500/ft. Here, the sellers have no wiggle room - with commission, they're already losing money on this trade, but as we've seen documented by our friends at SM Distress Monitor and Westside Bubble, 2004 rollbacks are already happening, so the chance that this seller gets above $600k is slim to none.

Saturday, March 7, 2009

Norma Triangle Pt. 1 - "How Booms & Busts Work"

Thanks to the Anon who commented about the "Million Bucks" post, in saying that some areas of WeHo should hold their value better than others. I agree - while my comment about prices coming down was general, like many cities/areas within greater LA, the one thing RE agents still get right is that eventually, it's location (x 3).

One WeHo 'hood that gets attention as being among the most desirable is Norma Triangle. For those not familiar, it's the area bounded by Santa Monica to the south, Doheny to the west, San Vicente to the east, and Cynthia to the north.

I thought I'd focus on this area for a few posts, since there always seems to be the "not here" attitude in falling markets, where the "nicer areas" claim to be immune from the pain.

For this post, here's a good example of 1) how cycles work, and 2) another seller who either isn't really motivated, is still a bit delusional, or both.



9061 Keith Ave, #110

2BR, 1.75BA / 1079 sq ft
$575,000 ($533/ft)
Dog, I assume, not included ...

Beautifully redone with many designer finishes. This move-right-in Condo also boasts an unbeatable location off Doheny Dr. Bamboo floors throughout. French Doors off Living Room and Master Bedroom lead to terraces. Sleek Showcase kitchen with Italian Glass Tile, Bosch & Miele Appliances. Bathroom's feature Waterworks fixtures as well as gorgeous pebble tile. Closets built-out by California Closet. The complete package.

Sold: 5/91 - $220,000 (just after peak of last RE boom)

Sold: 10/00 - $239,000 (seller breaks even after 9 years)

Listed: 12/9/08 - $599,000

Reduced: 3/5/09

This looks like a very nice, re-done condo. The pictures on Redfin suggest that it's been completely updated. Assuming that the current owner spent $150k ($200k?) on upgrades, their cost basis would be around $400k. This unit hasn't been on the market to the point where it's getting stale yet, but the economic climate has worsened in the past 3 months, and a $24k cut probably isn't going to get it done.

"The Vue"

"The Vue"
New Construction - 5 Units
912 N. San Vicente (b/w Santa Monica & Sunset)

Ultra sleek townhomes are "The Vue". In the heart of West Hollywood centered between the famed Sunset Strip and Santa Monica Boulevard. This contemporary setting is just steps away from West Hollywood's finest night life, dining, shopping and entertainment.

Each one of these New Town homes ranges from 1709-1830 square feet with 3 bedrooms 2.5 baths and a mezzanine. Gourmet kitchens include top of the line stainless steel appliances and some of the finest amenities. Floorplans feature 18-foot ceilings, commercial grade windows, rooftop decks and views of Los Angeles and the Pacific Ocean.



Recall our prior posts on new construction at 718 N. Croft and The Milano.

Here we have a building that looks like it's scheduled to be finished in the next few months. I ran by it the other day and it's basically a shell at this point.

There's no pricing info on the building website, but a link to the agent's website shows a mock listing for one of the units, priced at just under $1.2mm.

As you'd expect, these are "sleek" and "hip", at least from the virtual renderings on the site. In the current economic environment, makes you wonder what corners will be cut - will those Sub-Zero fridges become Fridgidares and the Viking Ranges become GEs?

And I like the nod to "commercial grade windows", which will no doubt be appreciated, since the building is right on one of the busiest parts of San Vicente.

That said, the drawings do look pretty cool. Not sure if you'll really have "vues" of the ocean, but the building is set up slightly on that incline going up to Sunset from Santa Monica.

Sunday, March 1, 2009

"The Milano"

1248 N. Laurel Ave, 90046
Late 2008 Construction

16 Units

The Conceptual design for "The Milano" was to give their clients the ultimate in luxury & metropolitan living spaces, designed w/ very large floor plans inspired by the best of Italian architecture. Features include large master suites, state-of-the-art kitchens, dark bamboo floors, huge balconies, frameless glass rain shower w/ separate tub & much more. Located in the heart of West Hollywood walking distance to Sunset & Santa Monica. Seller financing available.

Several readers have mentioned this building, so thought I'd do a little more homework. I was able to do a drive-by this weekend, albeit at dusk, so I didn't get the best view of the exterior. There seems to be a lot going on with this building, so buckle up for a fairly lengthy post. And, as always, I look forward to comments from readers with more knowledge, or to correct me where I'm off-base.

My initial observation is ... the architecture isn't terrible. I don't know about "inspired by the best of Italy", but it looks decent enough, as a lot of these builders are going for some sort of faux-[fill in the European country] look.

The problem is, it dwarfs the neighboring buildings, most of which are typical 2-story apartment/condo buildings. When you check out the pictures on the building's website, it's obvious that they were trying to build as high as permitted to get some units with downtown or hill views. I wonder if a special variance was needed here. All that I found was a Feb 2005 WeHo Planning Commission report approving the demolition of the exisiting 10-unit building at the address and the construction of this building.

This building would be right at home in Santa Monica, another area where I have some familiarity, as a lot of new townhome and condo projects are 3-4 stories. But here, it's a bit of a sore thumb. I don't know what the prior building looked like, so I can't comment as to whether the space was just extended vertically, or if they used more land on the ground level as well.

Frequent readers will have noticed my preference for bullet points or numbers when discussing properties with a lot going on, and here is no different. Let's examine, shall we?

1) What's REALLY been sold?
There are 16 units in the building. The price sheet (linked as a PDF) that's put out by the realtors representing the Milano indicates that 7 units have been sold, and 2 are in escrow. Anecdotally, my drive-by showed evidence of activity in at least two units (no, I wasn't spying!), so someone's living there. The units were sold too recently to show up in any public records as of yet, so I'll keep my eyes open for that, which should be telling. I still believe that in the current market, builders are playing games by either putting units in "shadow" inventory by saying they're sold, only to re-list them later, or claiming they're "sold" to the builder himself, and are being rented out for cash flow.

2) What's the PRICING like?
The units that show as still available range in price from $769k (2BR/2BA, 1700 sq ft) to $1.079mm (3BR/2BA, 1740 sq ft). They go out of their way to mention the # of patios for each unit. Interestingly, both the lowest and highest-priced units have only 1 "patio" (note to realtors, "patios" are on the ground floor, regardless of their size ...). There are some remaining units with 2 or 3 "patios" - ahem - balconies.

It's a little difficult to get a sense for the overall pricing, given that only the units showing as still available have prices. In general, the price per square foot seems to range from $450 to $620.

3) What's the LAYOUT on these units?
If any readers have seen the interior, I'd be interested in your comments. The layouts or appointments must be different, or a significant premium is being put on the location (for units on the same floor) in the building. For example, Unit #103, a 3+2, 1740 sq ft unit with 3 patios, is listed at $869k, while Unit #102, a 2+2 with 1620 sq ft unit with 2 patios, is listed $100k higher, at $969k.

The pictures available of course show professional staging, and look very slick. I wonder if, like many of these new buildings, the finishes are high-end Home Depot or Ikea, based on form, not substance. Not that there's anything wrong with that - although at close to a million bucks, I'd like a little higher quality.

4) What kind of PAIN can the builder take?
It looks like the prior building was bought for $640k. Maybe someone with more knowledge can clue us in as to demolition and building costs, but I'll take a guess:

$640k land
$100k demolition/permitting
building = approx 30,000 sq ft * $250/ft = $7.5mm

So an all-in cost of just over $8mm. Factor in carrying costs, and you could argue that the builder breaks even by selling 10-12 units at original listing prices. So even if the sales figures are right, the builder's not out of the woods yet, although might be close.

Could this lead to aggressive discounting on remaning units? Recall my post on 718 N Croft, also a new construction building that was seeing price reductions on remaining units. The builder needs to be careful, given that at least a few of the other units have sold, theoretically at higher prices than current market will bear. It's buyer beware, of course, but you could be facing some PO'ed tenants (not that they can really do anything about it).

5) So, are they WORTH it?
I'll let you be the judge. Remember that here at WeHo-Ho, we like to look at:

a) what a comparable unit would rent for, and
b) who "should" be able to afford these places.

At an average list price of approx $900k, and with some reasonable assumptions, including tax deductions, you're looking at an all-in monthly nut of approx $4,500. In a "real" lending environment, I think that would require approx $200k annual income.

So, ask yourself: would similar places rent for more or less than $4,500 (and don't forget the opportunity cost of putting almost $200k down), and should these be affordable to households making less than $200k/year?


UPDATE 3/3/09:

Thanks to "Bubblewatcher" and an Anon reader for their comments about the probable original purchase price for the entire property, and the recording of other sales.

In looking more closely at Propertyshark, here's some updated data:

April '08
Transaction for $1.7mm (assume purchase of the lot + existing structure)

June '08
Unit #301 sold for $867,000
Unit #302 sold for $1,150,000
Unit #202 sold for $940,000

November '08
Unit #201 sold for $640,000

So that accounts for 4 of the units, and I guess it's possible that a couple others have closed and not yet been recorded ...

Sunday, February 22, 2009

Not Feeling Fine in the "69"?

Address: 718 N. Croft Ave, 90069

Description: Only 5 Left! To experience Croft Villas @ Melrose Place is to experience the ultimate in urban L.A. lifestyle. 15 brand new luxury condos, high-end designer finishes, 3bd & 2ba, wd flrs, custom cabinets, Subzero & Bertazzoni appliances, washer/dryer hkps, FP, patios & views! Utilizing sophisticated style, elegance & quality at an exception & coveted location. Croft Villas is a collection of luxurious residences for people who appreciate convenience & demand the very best!

Here's something we're seeing a lot of recently - a building finished near or just after the top of the cycle, with two conflicting dynamics:
1) a number of owners who bought in early, and
2) a developer who is slashing prices

These look like large (1700-1800 sq ft), nicely-appointed condos in a good area of the 90069 - just off Melrose Place.

As the description states, there are 5 units remaining ... which have been on the market over a year at this point.

I couldn't find sale records on all 10 of the other units, so we may have a case here of "shadow" inventory as my counterparts over at Santa Monica Distress Monitor have correctly termed it, with developers holding back some units so as not to flood the market.

It looks like a few of these units sold in early to mid 2008, with prices ranging from approx $900k up to $1.4mm, or $650-750/sq ft.

Now the developer is (finally) cutting prices, in some cases up to $300k off the original price, bringing the price/sq ft to $550-650, depending on the unit.

Back to our conflicting market forces: Buyers who were in early are at least out their downpayment, if not more, at this point. It will be interesting to see if there is "foreclosure creep" in the building in the near future. As for the developers? They seem to be getting the message, but are they still behind the curve on price cuts?

Remember, here at WeHo-Ho, we like to ask two questions:
1) what would these units rent for?
and
2) who (meaning what income level) should live here?

With some reasonable assumptions for interest rates, tax deductions, and home owners' fees, the monthly nut for a $1mm place (average price of the remaining units) is around $4500/mo. Draw your own conclusions as to what these would rent for (I say $3500-4000) and what kind of income level supports that payment (probably around $250k/yr).

The larger issue in these newer buildings is - will the earlier units foreclose, and what does that mean to the homeowners reserves and therefore, the building upkeep?